Dan Walters: Gay marriage advocates debate next California move
From the Sacramento Bee

Gay rights advocates were shocked last year when hundreds of thousands of Californians who voted for Barack Obama's presidential bid also voted for Proposition 8, a constitutional amendment prohibiting same-sex marriage.

They're still debating among themselves what went wrong with the anti-Proposition 8 campaign. The finger-pointing continues with a very sharp internal argument over whether to seek Proposition 8's repeal in 2010, or wait until 2012 for a new ballot fight.

Sometime this week, it appears, that decision will be made by the myriad gay rights organizations because any attempt at qualifying a measure for the 2010 ballot must begin very soon.

The internal debate pits younger and more liberal gay rights advocates, who want to rejoin the battle with conservative "pro-family" groups as quickly as possible, against older and more established gay rights leaders, who believe they need more time to set the stage for a successful repeal campaign and fear that losing a third time inCalifornia would be ruinous.

The political professionals whose advice is being sought tend to agree with the latter. "Why are we even talking about 2010?" the state's leading Democratic ballot campaign manager, Gale Kaufman,was quoted as saying in the San Diego Union-Tribune last week. "What has changed in the hearts and minds of a significant number of Californians?"

Although Proposition 8 won narrowly and Californians' attitudes toward same-sex marriage have softened markedly in recent years, Kaufman and others believe that 2010 is too soon to seek repeal, especially when their opponents appear poised to spend heavily.

In the aftermath of the 2008 Proposition 8 campaign, it became apparent that much, if not all, of the winning margin came from African American and Latino voters who turned out in extra-heavy numbers to support Obama's presidential bid, and that has generated nearly a year of acrimonious debate within the gay rights community and black and Latino political circles.

Ron Buckmire, a mathematics professor at Occidental College who describes himself in his Internet blog as a "black, gay, Caribbean, liberal, progressive, moderate, fit, married, college-educated, NPR-Listening, tennis-playing feminist atheist," has emerged as one of the leading advocates for waiting.

"As I like to say: Do the math," Buckmire said in one interview. "It's going to take a long time. … I haven't seen a plan to win yet. I've seen a plan to get on the ballot. But not to win."

One question that gay rights advocates are trying to answer is whether the 2010 election, an off-year for presidential politics but one in which California will elect a new governor, would be more or less conducive to same-sex marriage.

Voter turnout would be lower than in 2008, most likely, and that probably would mean a somewhat whiter and older set of voters, which also could mean a lower turnout of those pro-Proposition 8 black and Latino voters.